UK petrol prices: current local fuel station pump costs could rise as oil jumps to $100 - what it means
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Global energy markets are on edge as tensions escalate in the key oil-producing region ⛽
- Oil prices have surged above $100 (£75) a barrel as conflict in the Middle East threatens global energy supplies
- Disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has raised fears of a major oil shortage
- UK fuel prices are already rising, with petrol at around 137p per litre and diesel at 148p
- Experts warn petrol could reach 150p–170p per litre if oil prices keep climbing
- Higher wholesale energy costs could also push up household gas and electricity bills in the months ahead
Oil prices have surged as the conflict in the Middle East, raising concerns about the cost of filling up at the pumps and the knock-on impact on household energy bills.
The global oil benchmark, Brent crude, has surged above $100 (£75) a barrel for the first time in nearly four years, after briefly climbing close to $120 (£90) a barrel. That represents a jump of around 60% since the conflict began.
While events in the region may seem thousands of miles away, such sharp moves in oil markets can quickly ripple through to everyday costs for UK households, particularly the price of petrol and diesel, and potentially energy bills.
Here’s the latest on what’s happening, and what it could mean for drivers and homeowners.
Why are oil prices rising?
The surge in oil prices is largely being driven by fears of supply disruption in one of the world’s most important energy-producing regions.
In response to US/Israeli strikes, Iran has targeted energy infrastructure across the Middle East and blocked the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which around a fifth of the world’s oil is transported on its south coast.
Because so much global crude passes through the route, any disruption can quickly trigger panic in energy markets, as traders worry that shipments may be delayed or blocked entirely, leading to a shortage of supply.
At the same time, energy companies in neighbouring countries have begun scaling back operations.
State-backed producer QatarEnergy has reportedly halted some liquefied natural gas production after attacks on its facilities, while Kuwait has taken similar steps.
When supply looks uncertain, oil prices tend to spike rapidly as buyers compete for available shipments.
Financial markets have also reacted nervously, with global stock falling sharply amid fears that rising energy costs could push inflation higher and weaken economic growth.
What does it mean for UK petrol and diesel prices?
Oil prices are one of the biggest drivers of the cost of petrol and diesel, so rises in crude prices usually feed through to forecourt prices.
Data from the RAC shows fuel prices have already started climbing since the conflict escalated.
Average petrol prices have risen to about 137p per litre, while diesel has jumped to around 148p per litre, a 16-month high. Since the start of the conflict, petrol prices have increased by nearly 4p per litre, while diesel has risen by almost 6p.
That means filling a typical 55-litre family car now costs roughly £2 more for petrol drivers and about £3.30 more for diesel drivers than it did before the conflict escalated.
How high could petrol prices go?
Wholesale fuel costs respond quickly to oil market movements, although it can take around two weeks for those changes to filter through fully to forecourt prices.
If the price of crude oil continues to climb, drivers could see further increases in the coming weeks.
Historically there is a fairly clear relationship between crude oil prices and fuel costs.
Analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit suggests that $100 a barrel oil could push petrol prices to around 150p per litre, while $120 a barrel oil could see petrol reach roughly 170p per litre.
That would represent a significant jump from current prices, though it would still be below the record highs seen during the 2022 energy crisis following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when petrol peaked at 191.5p per litre and diesel reached 199p.
But motoring groups say drivers do not need to panic buy fuel, with the AA saying that there is “no need for drivers to break their refuelling routine.”
Could household energy bills rise too?
Oil prices do not just affect transport costs, and turmoil in energy markets can also influence the cost of heating and electricity.
That’s because the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG), a key fuel used to generate electricity and heat homes in the UK, often moves alongside oil prices during global energy shocks.
Disruption to gas production in the Middle East has already pushed wholesale gas prices higher, partly due to reduced LNG exports.
When wholesale gas prices increase, the cost of producing electricity also rises, which can ultimately feed into consumer energy bills.
For UK households, the effect might not be immediate, but sustained high energy prices could influence future price cap levels set by the regulator Ofgem.
What is the Government doing about it?
The Government is closely monitoring the situation as the conflict escalates, and Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to join emergency talks with other finance ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) nations on Monday (March 9).
One option under discussion is a coordinated release of oil from emergency reserves through the International Energy Agency.
Such releases can temporarily increase global supply and calm markets, though analysts say they may only offer short-term relief if the disruption to shipping and production continues.
With household expenses continuing to rise and energy bills still higher than pre-crisis levels, more people are turning to Utility Warehouse (UW) to save money. UW lets you bundle services like broadband, mobile, energy and insurance into one streamlined account—reducing hassle while unlocking multi-service discounts. The more you bundle, the more you save.
Customers benefit from a single monthly bill, up to £400 towards early exit fees, and access to cashback on everyday spending. UW also offers the UK’s cheapest variable energy tariff when bundled, helping shield households from further price hikes.