Agency turns the World Cup into a live AI experiment as brands rethink trust and decision making
A Leeds digital agency has turned the biggest sporting event in the world into a public AI experiment in a bid to explore a much bigger question facing brands and consumers.
Not whether artificial intelligence can predict football. But whether people trust how it reaches decisions.
21 Degrees Digital launched its AI World Cup Predictor at the beginning of the tournament, creating a live public forecast that attempts to call every match, knockout stages and eventual winner while updating daily as the tournament evolves.
The platform combines rankings, squad data, injuries, current form and market indicators to generate predictions and explain its reasoning.
Current projections include:
• Spain winning the tournament • England reaching the final • Harry Kane winning the Golden Boot • Morocco emerging as dark horse contenders
The current track record for the platform is coming in at over 60%
But for 21 Degrees Digital, the interesting part is not whether the forecast gets every call right.
It is what happens when AI encounters uncertainty.
The agency says the project has quickly become less about prediction and more about understanding how AI behaves in unfamiliar environments.
Because while AI can process huge amounts of historical information, football remains uniquely difficult to forecast.
This year’s expanded tournament format, increased draw frequency and changing qualification routes have already created conditions with very little historical precedent.
Even Spain’s unexpected opening draw with Cape Verde challenged assumptions built into market expectations, historical data and the model itself.
Current performance sits at around 60 per cent - a figure the agency believes reflects both the strengths and limitations of explainable AI.
Rory Mason, co-founder of 21 Degrees Digital, said: “One of the biggest lessons for us has been that AI still needs context.
“It can only reason from information and patterns it has seen before. When the environment changes, or sport behaves unpredictably, you start to see the limits as well as the opportunities.
“That’s actually where the learning starts.”
Unlike traditional forecasting tools, the predictor does not claim to run thousands of hidden simulations or operate from inaccessible logic.
Instead, every prediction is created through a visible process using public information and then updated as reality changes.
Mason said: “We deliberately built something people could disagree with. That sounds strange, but disagreement creates engagement.
“If someone thinks the prediction is wrong, they can challenge the inputs and understand the reasoning.”
The agency believes the World Cup provides a useful test case for broader AI adoption. Sport is emotional.
People care deeply about outcomes. And unlike many business decisions, results arrive quickly and publicly.
That creates a unique environment for understanding trust.
Mason added: “We’ve enjoyed seeing people challenge it. People have debated the predictions, argued with them and questioned the logic.
“That tells us something bigger. The future probably isn’t people blindly trusting AI.
“It’s people using it as a tool, understanding its reasoning and combining that with human judgement.”
The launch reflects the wider direction of travel for 21 Degrees Digital, which positions itself around AI-first marketing and Outcome Marketing principles.
The agency believes future customer journeys will increasingly rely on systems that support decisions rather than simply delivering information.
Mason concluded: “The interesting thing isn’t whether people agree with the prediction.
“It’s whether they understand why it was made. That’s going to become increasingly important for every brand and every customer experience over the next few years.”
The World Cup predictor will continue updating daily throughout the tournament and maintains a public track record of previous calls.