UK weather: the likelihood of a ‘white Christmas’ and when we’ll know if snow will fall on Christmas Day

As we head towards December, some may be hoping for a Dickensian scene of widespread snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day.

Here’s all you need to know about ‘white Christmases’ including how likely a ‘white Christmas’ is and when we’ll know if we’ll have a ‘white Christmas’.

What is a 'white Christmas'?

For the Met Office to declare a ‘white Christmas’, a single snowflake has to be observed falling in the 24 hours of December 25, by either an official Met Office observer or by a Met Office automated weather station.

When was the last ‘white Christmas’?

According to the Met Office, 2023 was technically the last ‘white Christmas’ in the UK with 11% of stations recording snow falling, however none reported snow lying on the ground.

2010 was the last widespread ‘white Christmas’ in the UK. Not only was there snow on the ground at 83% of stations (the highest amount ever recorded), but snow or sleet also fell at 19% of stations. 2009 was also a ‘white Christmas’, with 13% of stations recording snow or sleet falling, and 57% reporting snow lying on the ground.

How likely is a ‘white Christmas'?

The Met Office says that since 1960 around half of the years have seen at least 5% of the network record snow falling on Christmas Day - meaning we can probably expect more than half of all Christmas Days to be a 'white Christmas'.

However, there has only been a widespread covering of snow on the ground (where more than 40% of stations in the UK reported snow on the ground at 9am) four times since 1960 - in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010.

When will we know if we'll have a ‘white Christmas’?

It is too early to know if we’ll have a ‘white Christmas’ this year. The Met Office say they can accurately forecast if snow is likely on any given Christmas Day up to five days beforehand.

The forecaster’s UK long-range forecast covering the period December 10 to December 24 reads: “Probably rather unsettled through mid-December with spells of wet and windy weather, especially in the northwest. Some drier, more settled periods are possible, particularly in the southeast. Later in the month, details are uncertain but it may become wetter in the south and perhaps a little drier in the north. Temperatures will probably be above average overall.”