How Leeds United can hit 90 per cent of Daniel Farke's Championship promotion target in 6 games
Leeds United have 13 games to secure their Championship fate.
Daniel Farke set Leeds United a 92-point Championship promotion target earlier this week and his side could go a long way to achieving that in less than half of their remaining fixtures.
Monday’s incredible 2-1 comeback win over Sunderland sent Leeds back to the Championship’s summit, extending their unbeaten league run to 15 games and opening up a two-point gap on Sheffield United. More importantly for many, there is now a seven-point cushion down to third-placed Burnley and 10 points on the Black Cats fourth.
Farke usually waits until gameweek 36 before taking a serious look at the Championship table, with the Leeds boss desperate to avoid focus extending any further than the next game. But with his side in such a commanding position, it’s hard to ignore.
“Yes, there’s a gap and that’s definitely, definitely good,” he said in the aftermath of Monday’s win. “But sadly there are more than just four or five games to go. Sadly, we have still many, many games to go. If we were to stop right now on 72 points, we would perhaps make it into the top six, but it’s not guaranteed. Hopefully we won’t lose all the last 13 games, so I think it’s a major step.
“But we have to definitely reach the play-offs and in order to be there in the top two with automatic promotion, yeah, we need to win 20 more points, and for that, it’s a long road. Each and every game is complicated. You saw that against Sunderland, difficult away games, challenging home games and for that we have to maintain the momentum to keep it going. So nothing is won yet. On 72 points, we will never be in the top two so we have to win many more points and we want to keep going.”
Leeds are on course to top that 92-point total by some distance - their 2.18 points-per-game average would take them onto 100 after 46 games - but the pressures of a promotion run-in can take its toll. Fortunately, Farke’s side have a familiar crutch to lean on.
The Whites have been outstanding at home this season, with September’s 1-0 defeat to Burnley their only loss of the campaign. 14 teams have come to Elland Road since and only Blackburn Rovers have left with anything to show for their efforts. Leeds won nine in a row before that New Year’s Day draw and have won four in a row since.
Continuing that winning run through the rest of the campaign is not out of the question, with just six games remaining at Elland Road. That would see Leeds pick up 18 more points at home, racking up 90 per cent of their manager’s promotion points target.
The toughest of those six games on paper is the one that arrives first, with sixth-placed West Brom due in West Yorkshire next weekend. Following that, mid-table quartet Millwall, Swansea, Preston and Stoke come to LS11 before the visit of eight-place Bristol City on the penultimate weekend.
Six wins from six would take Leeds on to 90 points even if every away day in between ends in defeat - an unlikely outcome, given Leeds are also seven unbeaten on the road. Farke’s side have two tricky away-days at Sheffield United and in-form Portsmouth, before trips to QPR, Luton Town, Middlesbrough, Oxford and Plymouth Argyle on the final day.
A more realistic outlook might be that Leeds draw a couple of their remaining six home games, but by balancing them out with a win or two on the road, Farke’s target is most certainly attainable. To fall short of winning 20 points in the next 13 games would mean a major drop in form, with the current average of 2.18 points-per-game needing to drop below 1.6 - and there is little evidence to suggest that might happen.