AI predicts Leeds United's Premier League finish if Nick Pope, Jaka Bijol, Habib Diarra & Rodrigo Muniz sign
Leeds United could significantly strengthen their Premier League survival chances if this summer transfer window is done right.
Leeds United know they face one of the most important summers in recent memory as they prepare for their Premier League return, with transfer business already underway. Free agent striker Lukas Nmecha was first through the door with £15million centre-back Jaka Bijol arriving on Monday - and plenty more should follow.
A huge number of players have been linked to Elland Road - with varying degrees of truth - but a core of credible transfer interests are particularly intriguing. Leeds are keen to strengthen their core and significantly improve the squad’s level of physicality, with first-team additions expected at goalkeeper, centre-back, central midfield and striker.
Centre-back Bijol is already through the door and Leeds have submitted exciting bids for both midfielder Habib Diarra and Striker Rodrigo Muniz, while there is interest in Newcastle United goalkeeper Nick Pope. The YEP was keen to see what difference the aforementioned quartet would make to next season’s survival bid and so tasked Artificial Intelligence tool Grok with determining how many points each could be worth.
Nick Pope
Grok said: “Currently at Newcastle United, Pope is a proven Premier League goalkeeper with a strong record. In the 2024/25 season, he made 28 league appearances, keeping eight clean sheets, and reports suggest Leeds are keen. His addition could save five to seven points through improved goalkeeping, crucial for survival.”
YEP verdict: Leeds saw last season how big a difference a top-class goalkeeper can have on a team’s results, with Michael Cooper and James Trafford regularly keeping Sheffield United and Burnley in games they went on to win. And in the Premier League, the likes of Jordan Pickford have earned invaluable points for Everton which have eventually kept relegation at arm’s length.
A move for Pope doesn’t currently appear likely, given reports suggesting Newcastle want to keep the 33-year-old even if they sign Trafford from Burnley. But if Leeds can afford to wait and do find an opportunity to pounce, a goalkeeper of this quality could genuinely be worth several points.
Jaka Bijol
Grok said: “A centre-back from Udinese, Bijol's Serie A experience could strengthen Leeds' defence. Likely adding three to five points by reducing goals conceded.”
YEP verdict: The only one of this quartet to have signed, Leeds got their prime defensive target over the line for £15million on Monday. The 26-year-old adds huge experience across top-flight leagues in Slovenia, Russia and Italy, as well as the physically dominating presence Elland Road chiefs seem keen to recruit this summer.
Last season’s relegated Premier League trio conceded an average of just under 83 goals each, while none of the other 17 let in more than 69. A solid defensive unit makes the difference and Bijol will have a big contribution, should Leeds keep it tight enough to survive.
Habib Diarra
Grok said: “From Strasbourg, where they finished seventh in Ligue 1 2024/25, Diarra's midfield creativity could enhance control. His impact might add two to four points, aiding transitions, though specific transfer links are less detailed in current reports.”
YEP verdict: Leeds have already submitted one bid for Diarra, believed to be worth around £22m, albeit all they deem him a less likely arrival compared to other midfield targets. That is due mainly to the level of expected competition but if the tide changes, he could prove a huge difference-maker in midfield.
Another who fits the bill in adding physicality, but perhaps in a different way to Bijol, Diarra’s engine will allow him to cover huge ground - an important asset against technically superior midfields. He’d also likely chip in with a few goal contributions, having registered four goals and five assists last season.
Rodrigo Muniz
Grok said: “At Fulham, Muniz scored eight goals in 31 appearances in 2024/25, and Leeds' interest is noted in reports. His potential to score 10–15 goals could add five to 10 points, boosting their attack.”
YEP verdict: Leeds are clearly big admirers of Muniz, having already seen a bid worth £32m in total rejected by Fulham, who insist he is not for sale. It remains to be seen if Elland Road chiefs will return with an improved offer but as is always the case in summer, things can change quickly.
Despite only starting eight league games last season, Muniz bagged an impressive eight goals and recorded a better goals-per-90 average than Erling Haaland - admittedly from a much smaller sample size. With a full 38-game season upfront, it’s feasible he gets well into double figures and that could be worth a huge number of points come May.
And on Leeds’ survival chances with all four potential signings, Grok concluded: “Given Leeds' strong Championship performance, the quality of the hypothetical signings, and historical trends, it seems likely they could finish around 14th, balancing potential and uncertainty. This position, with 52–57 points, would place them safely mid-table, avoiding relegation and building on their promotion success.”