Huge Leeds United boost could provide 3 extra points in promotion race as fresh early kick-off hope emerges
Leeds United are hoping to receive a huge injury boost ahead of their final eight Championship games.
Ethan Ampadu’s Leeds United return could prove the difference between automatic promotion and play-offs if his past influence on results this season is replicated between now and May.
The 24-year-old has missed Leeds’ last five Championship matches after his surprise omission from the matchday squad for last month’s 3-1 win at Sheffield United, having picked up a knee cartilage injury. Surgery might well have ended Ampadu’s season but the decision to take a more ‘conservative’ approach looks to have paid off, with the YEP reporting on Tuesday morning that he and Patrick Bamford are expected back in team training after the international break.
There is hope that Ampadu can return to action sooner than expected for a second time this season, having come back from a September knee injury around three weeks early in December after initially being ruled out until the New Year. And Leeds will be desperate for their captain to repeat that feat.
Ethan Ampadu return a huge boost for Leeds United
Daniel Farke’s side have endured a tough period of form since that Ampadu-less win at Bramall Lane, with four matches since yielding just five points. A first league defeat since November was deserved at Portsmouth despite the raft of missed chances, while draws against West Brom and QPR were far from convincing.
Those dropped points have only given further credence to the belief Ampadu is Leeds’ most important player, and his influence on results across the campaign echoes that sentiment. Through two separate injury spells the combative midfielder has missed 17 league games - 12 last year and five so far this time round - and come off the substitute's bench on three occasions.
In those 20 matches, Leeds have taken a total of 37 points which works out at an average of 1.85 points-per-game (PPG). Over the course of this season so far, that would only be good enough for fourth-place and it also represents a significant drop off in Leeds’ actual average of 2.1 PPG.
Of the 18 Championship games in which Ampadu has started, be it at centre-back or in midfield, Leeds have taken 43 points at a rate of just under 2.4 PPG. That is significantly above Leeds’ overall average and suggests over this season specifically, the captain's presence in a startling line-up is worth 0.55 points every time.
Ampadu could ease Leeds’ early kick-off woes
While Ampadu has shown great powers of recovery before this season, no one is expecting him to come straight back into the line-up against Swansea and it could also be that he misses out on a starting spot at Luton Town a week later. But even with those measures in place, Leeds could hope to have their midfielder for the final six games which could theoretically bring them three extra points in the promotion race.
Fortunately, Leeds will have a full week to prepare between Swansea’s arrival at Elland Road and next week’s trip to Luton, and Ampadu’s presence could prove even more crucial for that particular fixture. Early kick-offs have proven to be a big issue for Farke’s side this season, but of the nine times they have dropped points in a game before 3pm, Ampadu has only started three.
Only once have the Whites lost a game in which their captain has started - September's knife-edge 1-0 reverse at home to Burnley - and never this season have they fallen to defeat away from home, regardless of kick-off time. Those watching Leeds’ worst performances over the campaign have noted the absence of Ampadu and full-season data strongly backs up just how important he is.
Leeds know all too well their last eight games will not be won on theory, or on previous data, as the pressure of a Championship promotion race throws up all kinds of curveballs. But Ampadu’s presence has improved them significantly all season and his return could prove to be the difference come May.
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