Leeds United given new 90 per cent chance of promotion but harsh reminder fresh in the memory down home straight
Leeds United's promotion hopes are alive and well with the Whites are averaging over two points-per-game in the Championship this season.
Leeds are currently on course to finish with 97 points this season, if they maintain their form from the opening 28 games of the campaign throughout the remaining 18.
Ninety-seven is the tally current champions Leicester City managed last term on their way back to the top flight and would almost certainly be enough to guarantee Leeds automatic promotion this season.
Daniel Farke is not counting his chickens just yet and has repeatedly insisted there is little value in looking at the league table before the 'crunch time period' which he characterises from matchday 40 onwards.
History does suggest, though, that Leeds' promotion chances are extremely high. Over the past 20 seasons, the team in first place after 28 matches has gone on to win promotion in 18 such campaigns. Sixteen of those did so automatically with several lifting the title.
Since 2004/05, only two sides who were top of the table after 28 matches have failed to win promotion. Leeds United just so happen to be one of those teams, heading into the 2018/19 run-in as top dogs, before succumbing to a late-season slump and having to settle for a spot in the play-offs.
Ipswich Town are the other side to have this unfortunate record; top after 28 games in 2004/05, only to finish third and two points outside the automatic places.
While Leeds' 2018/19 campaign serves as a harsh reminder of what is always a possibility, Leeds' current points tally is greater than the Whites in 2019, as well as Ipswich's 55-point haul after 28 matches in 2005. However, the gap to third, which stands at just three points, is smaller and therefore so is the margin for error, particularly given Leeds visit promotion rivals Burnley on Monday, who have conceded just nine league goals this term.