This is how many points Leeds United need for automatic promotion after Middlesbrough win
Leeds United are top of the Championship table with just five games left.
Leeds United put themselves back in the driving seat for automatic promotion following Tuesday’s hard-fought 1-0 win at Middlesbrough.
Dan James scored the game’s only goal inside two minutes, fumbling the ball beyond Mark Travers after meeting Manor Solomon’s beautiful cross. The scoreline should have been more comfortable for a Leeds side who saw two goals, from Ao Tanaka and substitute Patrick Bamford, wrongly disallowed for offside.
But Leeds won’t be holding a grudge for too long and a battling defensive performance earned them three massive points, particularly with Sheffield United losing against Millwall and Burnley drawing at Derby County. Daniel Farke’s side dropped out of the automatic promotion places on Saturday but climbed straight back into first with victory at the Riverside Stadium.
With just five games remaining, there are now only 15 points up for grabs and so a two-point gap on Sheffield United is encouraging, while Leeds’ superior goal difference on the Blades and Burnley could prove decisive. That Chris Wilder’s side are due at Turf Moor later this month is also a massive factor.
That fixture means that if Burnley pick up maximum points from their final five games and go to 100 in total, Sheffield United can only pick up 12 points which would take them on to 95. Conversely, Sheffield United winning five from five would take them to 98 and subsequently allow Burnley to hit 97 points. Should the pair draw at Turf Moor and win all their other games, Burnley would finish on 98 points while Sheffield United would finish on 96 points.
How many points do Leeds United need for automatic promotion?
In short, the highest possible points total one of Sheffield United or Burnley could rack up while still finishing third is 97, which essentially means Leeds need a maximum of 12 points to secure automatic promotion due to their superior goal difference. That simply works out as four wins from their final five games.
That kind of near-perfect finish is unlikely, however, given the pressure on each team with so little room for error - as shown by Tuesday night’s results. Leeds will have a keen eye on Sheffield United’s results as they’re now two points short, and even a draw before their trip to Turf Moor could open up a gap too big to bridge.
Statistical gurus Opta have now tipped Leeds as strong favourites for automatic promotion, with victory at Middlesbrough handing them a 90.82 per cent chance of finishing in the top two. Farke’s side have been backed to win 95 points between now and early May, with a 56.72 per cent chance they claim the title.
Opta have backed Burnley to finish second, also on 95 points, but more notable is their prediction Sheffield United will end the season with 92 points. If the Blades finish the campaign as Opta expect, then Leeds will need just seven points to secure a top-two finish by virtue of superior goal difference and eight points to be clear.
A seven-point return would equate to just two wins and one draw from five games, three of which are at home. Should Leeds win all three home games - against Preston, Oxford and Stoke - then Opta expect those nine points to be more than enough. Of course, Championship promotion run-ins rarely go as algorithms predict but victory at Middlesbrough has put the Whites back in control.
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