How many points Leeds United need to beat Burnley to the Championship title - according to Opta
Leeds United secured automatic promotion on Monday but still have a trophy to fight for.
A return to the Premier League might finally be sinking in for Leeds United as the dust settles on Monday’s promotion party. A 6-0 thumping of Stoke City set the scene perfectly for Daniel Farke and his players to watch Sheffield United lose at Burnley later in the evening, a result which sparked wild celebrations in and around Elland Road that continued long into the night.
The days since have seen Leeds fans bask in the glory of promotion and the good news kept coming, with confirmation on Wednesday that Leeds City Council's executive board approved key proposals surrounding the expansion of Elland Road. Farke’s squad have also been able to unwind a little but as Pascal Struijk insisted following promotion, the job is not done yet.
Leeds’ 2024/25 campaign is not done with two games left and the Championship title to fight for. They and Burnley, whose promotion was also confirmed on Monday, sit level on 94 points and both have ambitions of being known as the second-tier’s best outfit in just over one week’s time.
Farke’s squad have a little longer to dust off any foggy heads this week, with Leeds not due to play until Monday evening when they host play-off hopefuls Bristol City. The Whites then go to relegation strugglers Plymouth Argyle on the final day, with the Pilgrims hoping to at least still be in with a shot of survival.
Burnley extended their unbeaten league run to an incredible 31 games by beating Sheffield United and there is little evidence to suggest they won’t hit 33, albeit Scott Parker’s side might be a little worse for wear when they go to Queens Park Rangers on Saturday. The Clarets also face a final-day meeting with a Millwall side who could be fighting for a play-off place.
How many points do Leeds United need to win the Championship title?
The simple fact is Leeds United will claim the Championship title if they win both of their remaining games, with Burnley currently level on 94 points but 14 goals behind on goal difference. Six more points would also take Farke’s side on to 100 for the campaign, which in itself would be an incredible achievement.
It’s also therefore pretty simple to work out that Leeds will finish top so long as they match Burnley’s points total, whatever that may be. Interestingly, Statistical experts Opta do predict points to be dropped by both at some point over the final two games.
Their expected points total for Burnley, which goes into decimal places, is 98.03, which essentially predicts Parker’s side to win one and draw one, therefore finishing on 98 points for the season. And so if they prove to be correct, Leeds need only to match that two-game run to claim the title.
Indeed Opta expect Leeds to do exactly that, with their predicted points tally of 98.13 leaving Farke’s side also on 98 points. That would be enough for them to finish top on goal difference, although you can’t help but think a manager and squad with such high standards might be a little disappointed at falling short of 100.
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