Opta predicted Premier League table rates Leeds United's survival chances with damning 48% verdict
Leeds United are inevitably among the early favourites to be relegated from the Premier League.
Statistical gurus Opta have predicted Leeds United to be relegated from the Premier League next season with the early odds stacked against Daniel Farke’s side.
All of the last six newly-promoted teams over two years have been instantly relegated, with last season’s trio of Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton going down with a whimper. Leeds finished the 2024/25 Championship season with the title and 100 points but know that gap to the Premier League is bigger than ever.
While some early potential issues are starting to emerge among the 17 established Premier League teams, Leeds and their newly-promoted rivals will inevitably be among the early relegation favourites from kick-off. And that sentiment is echoed by Opta, who on Wednesday morning released their 2025/26 predictions.
To build their predictions, Opta simulated the 2025/26 Premier League season 10,000 times and averaged out each campaign’s results to work out their expected final table. And as has been the case elsewhere this summer, they predict Leeds to be relegated alongside Sunderland and Burnley.
Leeds finish 19th in Opta’s final prediction, with a 16.8 per cent chance of ending the campaign in that position according to the simulations. Farke’s side are also given a 17.8 per cent chance of finishing bottom and a 13.4 per cent chance of ending the season 18th - a total percentage chance of relegation standing at 48 per cent.
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That is the second highest percentage chance of going down, with Sunderland predicted to finish bottom and 66 per cent likely to suffer relegation, according to Opta. Burnley are backed to finish highest of the newly-promoted trio, albeit they suffer the same fate with a 46 per cent chance of dropping back into the Championship.
Leeds United’s Premier League points total predicted
As far as points totals go, Leeds have been backed to get around 36 which in each of the last nine campaigns would have been enough to survive. However this time round, the traditional 40-point mark is more accurate with 17th-placed finishers Wolves getting around 42.
West Ham United and Fulham are predicted to be swirling around the bottom six come May, albeit both are comfortably above the newly-promoted trio when it comes to points totals. Sunderland’s 31-point total would be the highest of a 20th-placed finisher since West Brom in 2017/18.
But while the initial predictions might be of concern to Leeds fans, the 2025/26 Premier League season will almost certainly not finish how the models and statistical websites predict it, such is the nature of football. To emphasise that point, Opta themselves note that within their 10,000 simulations, 19 of the 20 teams end up champions at least once including Leeds.
Opta predicted table in full:
1. Liverpool (champions)
2. Arsenal
3. Manchester City
4. Chelsea
5. Aston Villa
6. Newcastle United
7. Crystal Palace
8. Brighton
9. Bournemouth
10. Brentford
11. Nottingham Forest
12. Manchester United
13. Everton
14. Tottenham Hotspur
15. Fulham
16. West Ham United
17. Wolves
18. Burnley (relegated)
19. Leeds United (relegated)
20. Sunderland (relegated)