Leeds United, Sheffield United, Burnley and top six experts predict Championship promotion finish
The Championship promotion run-in is upon Leeds United and across the top six there appears to be a consensus on how Daniel Farke's men will fare.
If anyone in the hunt for Premier League football is to heed a beware the Ides of March warning it's Leeds United because they know that this time last year things started to take a turn for the worse. This week Farke spoke about the difficulties he faced in the 2023/24 run in and without accusing individuals directly, once again pointed to contracts that gave players a strong sense that they would get to the top flight with or without Leeds. There were players whose offensive output dropped, there were injuries and there was a collective mental collapse at Queens Park Rangers.
This season, Farke says, is a completely different case and not one that can be linked to last season's run in. He's still insisting Leeds will have to be switched on and at their best in every game, however he's happy to put his name to the theory that victories in the four home games will be enough for them to celebrate automatic promotion.
“I think so, four wins brings us to 92 points,” Farke said on Thursday ahead of a game against Swansea City on Saturday at Elland Road. "We won’t automatically lose four away games. I’m also not too addicted to speaking about amount of points. My experience in the run-in, don’t be too far ahead, just focus on the next game. Focus on being at your best in the next game and grind out as many points as possible. If our home supporters sing us to four home wins then we go up.
“I don’t want to be respect-less, the home games are really difficult games. More or less final route like a knockout stage, we want to be successful in each game. I don’t look too far ahead at the point tally, I want three points against Swansea.”
Ask most, if not all of his divisional peers and they would say what they've been saying all season - Leeds United are the best team in the division. Many of them at this stage would be tipping no one else for the title. Farke rejected the favourites tag at the start of the season but with eight games to go it's unavoidable for a team in first place, even if their wiggle room is merely goal difference.
But before the Championship kicks off again, we took the views of the men who follow the top six sides week in and week out for their respective city or town newspapers and they all said exactly the same thing about the Whites. And because Leeds United sit top, I get to go first.
Graham Smyth, Yorkshire Evening Post
Top three prediction: Leeds - Blades - Burnley
Leeds United have the best squad in the league and a manager who knows exactly how to get 90+ points. While the title or even automatic promotion is by no means a foregone conclusion, I see enough in this squad and in Farke's record to strongly suggest they can finish it off.
We all remember how poorly they came out of the 2024 March international break but there is a crucial difference between that side and this one and it's found in the word balance. Where last season's team struggled if star men Crysencio Summerville and Georginio Rutter were not on it, this team has players taking responsibility all over the pitch. If Joel Piroe doesn't score, Dan James probably will. If James doesn't create a goalscoring chance, Manor Solomon will. The full-backs will both create and score. Ao Tanaka can score. Joe Rothwell can change a game with his deliveries. Pascal Struijk can get on the end of one. They have enough threat to score enough goals to win enough points to lift a league title from this position.
All of that said, I do think a strong start against Swansea City is vital just to quell any nerves and to put the Championship on notice that Leeds United are back on it after a little wobble prior to the international break. They've bounced back from blips brilliantly all season long, it shouldn't change now.
As for second, it's almost impossible to look past a Sheffield United team who win games even when they don't perform. They have that knack and they've refused to let Leeds get away all season. It will be tight but I believe Leeds will pip the Blades and they in turn will pip Burnley.
Danny Hall, Sheffield Star
Top three prediction: Leeds - Blades - Burnley
I'd pegged Leeds as my favourites for the title a while back and despite their mini-wobble and the usual Joy Division shouts, I still think they'll be lifting that bit of silverware above their heads come the end of the season. I thought they'd win it because of their joke options in terms of their squad and that hasn't really changed, even if their mini-wobble after winning the league at Bramall Lane has made things interesting again. I also don't see much to panic them during the run-in.
More interesting will be the race for second place, especially with a huge clash between United and Burnley near the end of the season. Sheffield United will be desperate to be ahead of Scott Parker's side by then; you wouldn't fancy going there, with their ridiculous defensive record, and needing to win. But you would be fairly confident of keeping them at bay, even if they have opened up a little going forward of late.
I predicted United would get second if Chris Wilder got what he wanted in January, and he did so it would be daft to change that view now. But it will go all the way and that Easter Monday clash could be absolutely huge.
Matt Scrafton, Burnley Express
Top three prediction: Leeds - Burnley - Blades
I expect the race for the top two to go right down to the wire, with no team pulling away. Many had expected Leeds to be that side that races to the title, but here they are still right in the mix. Saying that, I still have Daniel Farke's side as the favourites to finish first. For a good couple of months now, even when Sunderland were right in with a shout, I suspected it was between Burnley and Sheffield United for second place. You can never discount a Leeds wobble, but looking at their fixtures I don't foresee them dropping many more points between now and May.
As for second place, don't be surprised if it's decided by the odd point or even goal difference. In fact, it could well come down to a winner-take-all clash between Burnley and Sheffield United at Turf Moor in the third-to-last game of the season. From the outside looking in, the Blades don't appear to be playing particularly well, but they have that annoying habit of being able to grind out wins, which will obviously stand them in good stead heading into these decisive last few weeks of the season.
Rule out Burnley at your peril though. They're currently the division's form side, winning four of their last five. They're unbeaten in their last 25 league games and have still only lost twice all season. And of course there's that frankly ridiculous defensive record - shipping just 11 goals in 38 games. Their problems have come at the other end, in the attacking third. But that's been improved upon recently and their goals for tally is now just one shy of Chris Wilder's men.
The Clarets are on course to finish with around 92/93 points, which normally would virtually guarantee you a spot in the top two (other than last season, of course!). But this season it might not be enough either. On paper, Burnley perhaps have the trickier fixtures out of the three, but they seem to be hitting top form at just the right time. Because of that, I have them pipping Sheffield United by a whisker.
James Jones , Sunderland Echo
Top three prediction: Leeds - Blades - Burnley
At this stage, I think it’s fair to suggest that Sunderland’s chances of making the automatic promotion places lie somewhere between “minimal” and “non-existent”. As such, it really does look like a three-way shootout between Leeds United, Sheffield United, and Burnley, and my gut tells me that they will probably finish the season in that order too.
Daniel Farke’s side have stumbled a little in recent weeks, but the hope will be that they have been able to gather themselves somewhat during the international break, and that they can head into winnable fixtures against Swansea City and Luton Town over the coming week or so with a renewed poise and purpose. Aside from a couple of potentially thorny clashes with Middlesbrough and Bristol City, the Whites have a relatively kind run-in ahead of them, and it would be a surprise if they’re not in the top two come May 3rd.
As for Sheffield United and Burnley, both are going well, and both will believe that they have what it takes to avoid running the play-off gauntlet. So much could hinge on that meeting between the two at Turf Moor on April 21st, but all things considered, I just fancy the Blades to edge it over the course of the final eight matches of the campaign.
Andy Turner, Coventry Telegraph
Top three prediction: Leeds - Blades - Burnley
I think the table will finish as it stands today with eight games to go. Leeds and Sheffield United may be neck and neck on 80 points but the Whites have been the best team Coventry have faced by a country mile so far this season. Daniel Farke’s men comfortably beat the Sky Blues 2-0 at the CBS Arena – the only blemish to an incredible run of nine league wins out of ten for Frank Lampard – but could easily have scored six or seven that day, but for profligacy in front of goal. Leeds also comprehensively beat City 3-0 at Elland Road earlier in the season when the Midlands side were poor bystanders in a disappointingly one-sided affair. Leeds also have a vastly superior goal difference over the Blades and unless there’s an unlikely drop off in form, I just can’t see anything other than them finishing as champions.
Sheffield United have a glut of exciting attacking players and a real game changer and match winner in the wonderful former Sky Blues’ favourite Gus Hamer, and I expect them to keep pace all the way to the end. Burnley, meanwhile, continue to be prone to the odd draw while keeping up their incredible defensive record but I’m not convinced they have the attacking prowess to make a late surge to overtake either of the two above them.
Lewis Cox - Express & Star (WBA)
Top three prediction: Leeds - Blades - Burnley
I've not been lazy and just gone for the current order, promise! It is a little difficult to make a solid prediction not seeing the three sides each week and going by odds-and-sods highlights rather than studying run-ins, but I am in a decent position having been away to each of the top three since December 29 - Burnley and Leeds in particular within the last few weeks. I just feel Leeds have more firepower and have believed that all season. Albion played well at Elland Road and either team could have won, but Leeds' bench has top quality in attack to come in. Goals, from all departments, late in games are telling too. There is enough in that group to get over the wobble, if you can call it that. I think Sheffield United will just edge Burnley on the basis of their quality in forward areas. The Blades look there to be got to me, but I think they have the ability going forward to sneak it, and despite their outrageous defensive record I feel the Clarets' lack of goals may hamper them when push comes to shove.