Leeds United's survival bid: Predicted final table and run-in compared to Nottingham Forest, Spurs & West Ham
A look at the Premier League relegation picture following Leeds United's 1-1 draw at Aston Villa and results elsewhere.
Leeds United took another positive step towards Premier League safety over the weekend following their 1-1 draw at Aston Villa. The Whites went ahead through Anton Stach’s brilliant free-kick and despite the disappointment of conceding late to Tammy Abraham, will have been happy with the point.
That point looked even better come Sunday evening, with none of West Ham, Nottingham Forest or Tottenham Hotspur able to do better despite all being at home. The Hammers drew 0-0 against Bournemouth on Saturday before defeats for Forest and Spurs, against Liverpool and Arsenal respectively.
That leaves Leeds in 15th with 11 games to go, six points ahead of 18th-placed West Ham, four ahead of Forest and two better off than Tottenham. And with the relegation battle heating up, the YEP looks at the current picture and what the future holds for all involved.
Current Premier League table
It’s looking good for Leeds heading into this new week, with Farke’s side atop the mini six-team table that is forming at the bottom of the Premier League. Below is the current state of play:
15th: Leeds United - 31pts (-9GD)
16th: Tottenham Hotspur - 29pts (-4GD)
17th: Nottingham Forest - 27 pts (-14GD)
18th: West Ham - 25 pts (-17GD)
19th: Burnley - 19pts (-23GD)
20th: Wolves - 10pts (-33GD)
Predicted final Premier League table
Following another big weekend in the Premier League relegation battle, Opta have updated their predicted final table. And once again, it’s good reading for Leeds:
15th: Leeds United - 45.28pts - Relegation probability: 2.33%
16th: Tottenham Hotspur - 43.39pts - Relegation probability: 4.35%
17th: Nottingham Forest - 39.65pts - Relegation probability: 23.08%
18th: West Ham - 35.84pts - Relegation probability: 71.44%
19th: Burnley - 29.07pts - Relegation probability: 97.6%
20th: Wolves - 19.52pts - Relegation probability: 100%
Fixture run-ins compared
The Whites are therefore well-placed to secure their Premier League status, so long as they can pick up the necessary points over the next 11 gameweeks. Fortunately, Farke’s side have an encouraging final run of games.
Below are the run-ins for each team and Opta’s average opponent power ranking, which essentially rates teams somewhere between 0 and 100 across all of Europe on current form and quality. For reference, Arsenal are rated at 100 while Wolves’ power ranking is 86.6.
Leeds United’s run-in
Man City (H), Sunderland (H), Crystal Palace (A), Brentford (H), Man Utd (A), Wolves (H), Bournemouth (A), Burnley (H), Tottenham (A), Brighton (H), West Ham (A) | Average opponent power ranking: 90.2.
Tottenham’s run-in
Fulham (A), Crystal Palace (H), Liverpool (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Sunderland (A), Brighton (H), Wolves (A), Aston Villa (A), Leeds United (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H) | Average opponent power ranking: 91.1.
Nottingham Forest’s run-in
Brighton (A), Man City (A), Fulham (H), Tottenham (A), Aston Villa (H), Burnley (H), Sunderland (A), Chelsea (A), Newcastle United (H), Man Utd (A), Bournemouth (H) | Average opponent power ranking: 91.8.
West Ham’s run-in
Liverpool (A), Fulham (A), Man City (H), Aston Villa (A), Wolves (H), Crystal Palace (A), Everton (H), Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle United (A), Leeds United (H) | Average opponent power ranking: 92.2.
Burnley’s run-in
Brentford (H), Everton (A), Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A), Brighton (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Man City (H), Leeds United (A), Aston Villa (H), Arsenal (A), Wolves (H) | Average opponent power ranking: 90.2
Wolves’ run-in
Aston Villa (H), Liverpool (H), Brentford (A), West Ham (A), Leeds United (A), Tottenham (H), Sunderland (H), Brighton (A), Fulham (H), Burnley (A) | Average opponent power ranking: 90.2