Leeds United survival bid: Predicted table, points needed & run-in compared to rivals after Brentford point
A look at Leeds United’s place in the Premier League relegation battle alongside West Ham, Tottenham and Nottingham Forest.
Leeds United will spend the next three weeks four points above the Premier League relegation zone following Saturday’s 0-0 draw at home to Brentford. The point pulled Daniel Farke’s side a little closer to safety, with 18th-placed West Ham and Tottenham Hotspur in 17th both losing.
Nottingham Forest were the weekend’s big winners thanks to their 3-0 victory at Spurs, a result which leaves them one point shy of Leeds. After the March international break, the Whites face West Ham in an FA Cup quarter-final before their next league game at Manchester United.
Following another big week in the Premier League relegation battle, Opta have updated their end-of-season predictions. Interestingly, Leeds’ chance of finishing in the bottom three has increased ever so slightly, from 6.5% to 6.9%.
In reality, that is no difference at all but all three relegation rivals saw major chances. Forest’s chance of relegation decreased massively from 34.3% to just 8.5%. Defeated pair Tottenham (13.9% to 26.5%) and West Ham (45.7% to 58.2%) both saw their chances of dropping into the Championship increase.
Predicted Premier League table
Here is what the bottom six looks like in Opta’s Premier League predicted table:
15. Leeds United - 42 points
16. Nottingham Forest - 41 points
17. Tottenham - 38 points
18. West Ham - 37 points
19. Burnley - 26 points
20. Wolves - 25 points
How many points do Leeds United need to survive?
Last weekend’s goalless draw against Brentford took Leeds on to 33 points for the season, with Opta expecting them to pick up another nine points. That could either be through a trio of victories or something like two wins and three draws.
Interestingly, West Ham are expected to finish in 18th on 37 points which would see them relegated despite averaging just under one point per game. Tottenham have been predicted to get 38 points, which would make for a tight final day between the pair.
Should those predictions prove to be accurate, Leeds could find themselves safe with 37 points, given their superior goal difference to West Ham. In such a case, Farke’s side could be safe with as little as one win and one draw, although no one will want it to be that close.
Leeds United’s run-in compared to rivals
Leeds also have a more favourable run-in compared to their relegation rivals, on paper at least. Let’s take a look:
Leeds United’s run-in
Man Utd (A), Wolves (H), Bournemouth (A), Burnley (H), Tottenham (A), Brighton (H), West Ham (A)
Tottenham’s run-in
Sunderland (A), Brighton (H), Wolves (A), Aston Villa (A), Leeds United (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H)
Nottingham Forest’s run-in
Aston Villa (H), Burnley (H), Sunderland (A), Chelsea (A), Newcastle United (H), Man Utd (A), Bournemouth (H)
West Ham’s run-in
Wolves (H), Crystal Palace (A), Everton (H), Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle United (A), Leeds United (H)
Burnley’s run-in
Brighton (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Man City (H), Leeds United (A), Aston Villa (H), Arsenal (A), Wolves (H)
Wolves’ run-in
West Ham (A), Leeds United (A), Tottenham (H), Sunderland (H), Brighton (A), Fulham (H), Burnley (A)