Leeds United survival bid: Predicted table, Points needed & run-in compared to West Ham, Nottingham Forest & Tottenham
A detailed look at Leeds United's Premier League survival bid including how many points Opta expect them to earn and what their final fixtures look like.
Leeds United ended Premier League matchweek 30 exactly where they started it following Sunday’s 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace. Daniel Farke’s side played the entire second-half a man down following Gabriel Gudmundsson’s controversial red card but fought tooth and nail to earn a point.
That point proved crucial in keeping Leeds clear of the drop zone, with 18th-placed West Ham also drawing at home to Manchester City while Nottingham Forest played out a 0-0 stalemate with Fulham. Tottenham Hotspur scored late at Anfield to draw 1-1 with Liverpool.
Following a week in which nothing changed regarding the relegation fight except points totals, Opta’s Premier League predictions remained much the same as before. That’s good news for Leeds, though, who are still predicted to finish the season in 15th with just a 6.5% chance of relegation.
That is less than half the next most likely, with Tottenham’s chances of going down rated at 13.9% following Sunday’s draw at Liverpool. Nottingham Forest have a 34.3% chance of finishing in the bottom three while West Ham have been given a 45.7% chance of dropping into the Championship.
Predicted Premier League table
Here is what the bottom six looks like in Opta’s Premier League predicted table:
15. Leeds United - 42 points
16. Tottenham - 40 points
17. Nottingham Forest - 38 points
18. West Ham - 38 points
19. Burnley - 27 points
20. Wolves - 25 points
How many points do Leeds United need to survive?
With another point added to their tally at Selhurst Park on Sunday, Leeds are now on 32 points with eight games to go. And according to Opta, Farke’s side will pick up another 10 points, finishing the season on 42.
Interestingly, West Ham are expected to finish in 18th with the Hammers predicted to end the season on 38 points which would see them relegated despite averaging one point per game. Forest are also expected to finish on 38 points, making it an incredibly tight battle to survive.
Should those predictions prove to be accurate, it means Leeds could find themselves safe with 39 points, meaning they would only need to pick up another seven points from their final eight games. Farke and his squad will, of course, be aiming for a more comfortable end to their campaign.
Leeds United’s run-in compared to rivals
Leeds do look to have a more favourable run-in compared to their relegation rivals. Of course, no game is easy in the Premier League with even Wolves enjoying a recent uptick in form, but Farke’s side will fancy themselves to take something in each of their final eight matches.
Leeds United’s run-in
Brentford (H), Man Utd (A), Wolves (H), Bournemouth (A), Burnley (H), Tottenham (A), Brighton (H), West Ham (A)
Tottenham’s run-in
Nottingham Forest (H), Sunderland (A), Brighton (H), Wolves (A), Aston Villa (A), Leeds United (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H)
Nottingham Forest’s run-in
Tottenham (A), Aston Villa (H), Burnley (H), Sunderland (A), Chelsea (A), Newcastle United (H), Man Utd (A), Bournemouth (H)
West Ham’s run-in
Aston Villa (A), Wolves (H), Crystal Palace (A), Everton (H), Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle United (A), Leeds United (H)
Burnley’s run-in
Fulham (A), Brighton (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Man City (H), Leeds United (A), Aston Villa (H), Arsenal (A), Wolves (H)
Wolves’ run-in
West Ham (A), Leeds United (A), Tottenham (H), Sunderland (H), Brighton (A), Fulham (H), Burnley (A)