Leeds United's transfer confidence and risky business as one star follows another out the door

There has been, all summer, a confidence around Elland Road and Thorp Arch that Leeds would emerge from the summer transfer window with their promotion credentials intact, at the very least. Sales, they made clear, were inevitable - or at least one big one was. Two big ones, the Archie Gray and Crysencio Summerville exits, and a few sub-£10m ones all just about fall within the boundaries of what was expected or maybe more accurately what was feared by fans from the outset. Losing Gray was a bitter blow, not even sweetened that much by the £40m that came the other way from Tottenham Hotspur. Losing Summerville was actually what most had steeled themselves for when the window opened and so this move to West Ham United, which should be wrapped up by Friday evening but may not be announced until Saturday, has not come as a hammer blow.

Leeds, too, had prepared themselves for such an eventuality. That's why so much time and effort went into the scouting of wide players who could replace Summerville, or even Willy Gnonto, whose future will remain uncertain until such a time as he or the club rule out a summer 2024 goodbye. But in agreeing to sell players like Gray and Summerville, 49ers Enterprises are putting themselves in a position where should they fall, the pain will be very real.

Beyond the first major consideration, which is financial due to profitability and sustainability regulations being what they are and the credit card transfer bill the previous regime ran up, Leeds' owners are acutely aware of what will be said about them and how the fanbase will react should they take away Farke's very best talents and fail to adequately replace them. Missing out on promotion for a second time would even further weaken the club's financial position outside the top flight and make attempt number three harder than the first two. The longer you're in the Championship the more difficult it becomes to get out of it, after all. So putting out an inferior squad to the one that got 90 points and still didn't go up last season, simply isn't an option. Keeping the fans onboard and engaged is just as important for revenue reasons as it is for creating an Elland Road atmosphere conducive to success. And should the best case scenario not arrive next May, then the words Gray and Summerville will feature predominantly in the discourse.

There's a healthy dose of cynicism when it comes to the perception of owners among supporters, because of the false promises and dawns of the past, and what some see when they look at transfer exits is not an overarching strategy that keeps P&S at bay while keeping Farke's talent resource ticking over, but an investment group prioritising pounds and pennies. Those fans will need to be proved wrong by what happens next in the window and what follows when it shuts. The risk of losing the confidence of the fans is always there but right now there is a delicate balance between a very short track record of sensible business operation and near-success, and the way this ownership group does not want to be viewed.

Replacing Gray is an almost impossible task because of who he is. Eighteen years of age, Leeds United through and through, with that name, that potential and an ability that makes positions on the pitch redundant - you just aren't getting another one of those in the transfer market. You might, maybe, possibly get another from the academy if brother Harry is allowed to develop what already appears to be a precocious talent, but there won't be anything like Archie Gray in Leeds' incoming business.

Replacing Summerville is a different matter altogether because you can sign players who score goals, players who make goals and those rare beasts who do both with a level of consistency. The player or players Leeds bring in to finish off what is already a very dangerous and varied attack force, don't even need to have a ceiling as high as the one Summerville has. They could be proven at this level or in an equivalent league and so long as they get Leeds up then the job has been done. What they must represent is quality. They must come up with goal contributions, that final pass that splits a defence, that cross that begs a finish or a finish that beats a keeper. They, or someone within the existing squad, must take on that talismanic nature that Summerville exhibited often, but not always, last season. That main man energy he takes out the door with him needs to be found in another. Herein lies the risk because very few, if any signings come with a guarantee that they will fit in with the squad, their team-mates, the manager, his system, the style of play, the English game or the expectations that get heaped on players at Elland Road. You can pick out a player and be confident that he will replace Summerville, you cannot say definitively that he will until he plays, however.

There will be those who see a fee coming in under the £30m mark and question this club's ability to sell players for their true value, with Raphinha's price and, let's be brutally honest, Gray's still so fresh in the memory. But perhaps Leeds have decided that a little compromise on the financials will be a downside more than ameliorated by the upside of the time remaining in the window to get the rest of their business done. This is not panic stations in the final days or hours of the summer in which they must cast around unsuccessfully for a Cody Gakpo or a Bamba Dieng and then, at the very last minute, grab a Gnonto.

The preparation work they have already done should hypothetically mean that they can pull the trigger on deals they have been lining up for this very eventuality. Player availability is a variable, of course, and we understand that Leeds believe they need not jump or rush into anything given the strength of the squad that Summerville is leaving behind. That spine of the team looks strong and the back four as good as any you'll find outside the top tier. Daniel James and Gnonto are more than good enough to hold down the wide positions, Georginio Rutter's versatility in that regard is an exciting and largely untapped proposition and Brenden Aaronson can also come in from a wide position as more of a 10 than an out-and-out winger. With Mateo Joseph quite possibly approaching his breakout season, Joel Piroe still capable of finding the back of the net and Patrick Bamford working his way back to fitness to support, that should be enough to tide Farke over for now.

But there is no doubt that Leeds must now get the final pieces of the puzzle in order to say this is our final squad, one that is better than all others in the Championship and one that will take us 'home' to the Premier League. A full-back, a central midfielder, a winger and maybe another 10 or even an out-and-out striker would not go amiss. To date their recruitment has looked sensible. Joe Rodon is a very good signing, a player more than capable of gracing one of the division's best sides. Jayden Bogle at £5m looks like a nice bit of business. Joe Rothwell showed with that lovely curling ball into the Schalke box in the second half that he is something different to what Ethan Ampadu, Ilia Gruev and Glen Kamara provided. Whoever they get for the top end of the pitch has to be more statement than sensible. More of a sure thing than an unproven risk. This is where 49ers Enterprises can show their working out, the method by which they have been planning and strategising a genuine second crack at promotion. They might not be in such a hurry as to get everything done by the Portsmouth game, but what they do in the last month of the window will tell us much about their attitude to risk and how determined they are to finish this season with the right reward.