Nine out of 10 Leeds United promotion peers reject popular Illan Meslier action following Hull City blunder
Following Illan Meslier's display against Hull City last weekend, much of the discourse surrounding Leeds United has focused on the No. 1 position.
While many have called for the Frenchman to be dropped for back-up goalkeeper Karl Darlow, others have suggested the club should enter the January transfer market for a replacement, or at least someone who can materially challenge the 24-year-old whose performances over several seasons have been up for debate.
Even for those in Meslier's corner, last Saturday's 3-3 draw at the MKM Stadium must have felt like the tide was turning against him once and for all. The Leeds stopper had a part to play in all three of United's concessions, although his error for Hull's second the most troubling of the lot, palming a looping header down into the path of Tigers' forward Joao Pedro when it appeared danger had been averted. A routine catch or tip over the crossbar would have sufficed and Leeds would have retained their two-goal advantage, having shown resilience to come from behind on the road once again. Instead, it lit the fires of a comeback which should never have been on the cards.
The goalkeeper's positioning for Hull's first was deemed inexplicable by some, caught between his goal line and the ball 30 yards from goal as Abu Kamara gently lifted it over the Leeds custodian. Then, for Kamara's second and Hull's equalising third, Meslier came to punch at a set-play, failed to connect and could only watch as the ball fell to the City attacker who swept into the net, Meslier scrambling in vain across his six-yard box to better position himself for the shot.
It follows the calamitous error which took place in stoppage time at the Stadium of Light earlier this season when Meslier allowed what should have been a routine gathering of the ball to wrong-foot him and trundle into the unguarded net, costing Leeds another two points. Errors aside, though, and there have been concerns about the goalkeeper's concentration, distribution and shot-stopping for longer than Daniel Farke has been in the building, and yet he has remained undisputed first choice.
Farke has supported Meslier through his previous erring, insistent the man with 14 clean sheets this season is, in fact, one of the best in the division. While some numbers support that particular statement, others do not, such as the 'Goals Prevented' metric commonly used within clubs and the analytics community. This year, Meslier has conceded two more goals than the average goalkeeper would have been expected to, given the quality of shots he has faced - and he hasn't faced an awful lot of them.
Peers such as Michael Cooper (Sheffield United), James Trafford (Burnley) and Viktor Johansson (Stoke City) all boast significant overperformances in the shot-stopping department. For the latter's side, his saves have kept Stoke from being sucked into a relegation battle, whilst the others' individual displays between the posts has mitigated for collective shortcomings elsewhere on the pitch.
Calls for Meslier's removal from the starting lineup have been vociferous on social media. But, how often do teams who go up from the Championship automatically, switch their incumbent No. 1 midway through the campaign?
Of the last 10 sides to be promoted to the Premier League via the automatic places, only one has switched their first choice goalkeeper during the campaign for performance-related reasons. In 2021/22, Fulham swapped Paulo Gazzaniga for Marek Rodak after 11 matchdays with the Slovakian retaining the No. 1 spot for the remainder of the campaign.
Gazzaniga kept just two clean sheets during his 11 starts at the beginning of the season and finished the campaign having conceded just over an additional two goals than the average 'keeper would have been expected to. The final straw for head coach Marco Silva, whose side went up as champions, was a 4-1 defeat by Coventry City, the end of a six-game run in which Gazzaniga failed to keep a single clean sheet.
That situation was, however, incomparable to Leeds' current predicament because how differently the two managers view the No. 1 position. Silva, at the time, took a different line to Farke, who has made clear Meslier is No. 1, making it difficult for the Frenchman to be dropped. Doing so would suggest a hierarchical shift which Farke is keen to avoid given how frequently he has preached the importance of squad harmony, knowing individual roles and a collegial atmosphere during promotion pushes.
“I don’t have No 1,” Silva said in August 2021. “I have two very good goalkeepers. I took the decision to start with Paulo but I have 100 per cent confidence in Marek. I am 100 per cent sure if my decision was on Marek, he would be more than able to perform like Paulo is performing, no doubt about it.
“Paulo knows that he has full confidence from ourselves. But he knows that he has Marek behind him and pushing him, because Marek wants to play and maybe is deserving to play as well.
“I have two at the same level, two fighting for the position," Silva added.
Other automatically-promoted sides of the last five seasons have stuck with their tried-and-tested No. 1s throughout the entirety of the campaign. Last year, Mads Hermansen and Vaclav Hladky played a combined 90 of 92 league games for Leicester City and Ipswich Town, respectively. The season before that, Arijanet Muric and Wes Foderingham featured a combined 80 times for promoted pair Burnley and Sheffield United.
The same year Fulham swapped Gazzaniga for Rodak, AFC Bournemouth's Mark Travers played 45 times en route to finishing second. Sam Johnstone, then of West Bromwich Albion, played every single minute of the 2019/20 campaign as the Baggies were promoted behind Leeds. Crucially, each of these goalkeepers were 'in the green' when it came to 'Goals Prevented'. That is to say, they all saved shots at a level greater than the average 'keeper was expected to perform, so, for coaches there was little reason to change tack.
In 2020/21, when Farke won his second Championship title with Norwich City, Dutchman Tim Krul was first choice stopper but suffered an injury causing deputy Michael McGovern to step up for 10 games of the season. Krul finished that particular campaign as the Championship goalkeeper with the greatest shot-stopping overperformance, meaning Farke didn't really have a decision to make when the ex-Newcastle United man returned to fitness, because his first choice had been justifying his place.
Watford switched from Ben Foster to Daniel Bachmann midway through the same season with the Austrian retaining the gloves even after Foster overcame the injury which caused his absence in the first place. Bachmann came in and, like Foster, performed at about league average, but firmly 'in the green' and crucially not in the negative for 'Goals Prevented'.
Put simply, Meslier is in the red - and that is without some notable flashpoints. Errors such as last weekend are not reflected in the numbers because Joao Pedro's finish is, technically, a high xG chance inside the six-yard box where few goalkeepers would be expected to save from. What isn't taken into account is how the chance came to be, which unfortunately for Meslier, is very much the Frenchman's doing.
Last season, his shot-stopping fell below the Championship average over the course of the entire campaign, whilst in the Premier League during 2022/23, Meslier's 'Goals Prevented' performance was second-poorest of all regularly-appearing goalkeepers.
The only other first choice goalkeeper to be promoted from the Championship in the past five seasons who was similarly 'in the red' is the man Meslier replaced: Kiko Casilla. Marcelo Bielsa's preferred starter in 2019/20 ended the campaign having lost his place due to a combination of factors, ironically one of which being Meslier's form upon replacing the Spaniard during his eight-match suspension for racial abuse.
There was a similar discourse surrounding Casilla during Leeds' last successful promotion push, particularly after Meslier's display in the FA Cup Third Round against Arsenal and the ex-Real Madrid man's performance some weeks later away to Brentford. Only, this time there is no European prodigy waiting in the wings for Leeds to call upon - the situation is markedly different. Understudy Darlow has impressed this season when appearing for Wales, but has so far struggled to convince fans or Farke that he can materially challenge Meslier for the No. 1 spot.
Considering goalkeeper is one of, if not the most, under-the-spotlight positions on the football pitch, the situation with Meslier's form is plausibly Farke's greatest challenge of 2024/25 thus far. Losing Ilia Gruev and Ethan Ampadu in consecutive games to long-term knee injuries was far from ideal but Joe Rothwell and Ao Tanaka proved more than capable in their absence. The sales of Crysencio Summerville, Archie Gray and Georginio Rutter, among others, was a test which Leeds have overcame without a great deal of fanfare; alternatives were signed whilst others have stepped up to fill the hole left by last season's protagonists.
With Meslier, though, Leeds are in a tricky spot. Reaction from selected teammates following errors at Sunderland and Hull tells only half a story, while the bulk of supporters are left unconvinced by the goalkeeper Farke is standing by.
This weekend, Darlow will probably take to the field in the FA Cup against Harrogate Town, a game in which he is unlikely to be tested enough that would give Farke the opportunity to keep him between the sticks on merit. Potentially one of the more consequential decisions of Leeds' season comes a week later at home to Sheffield Wednesday when United return to league action, to see whether Farke will stick or twist at No. 1.