Musical Biopic Fatigue: Is Hollywood overdoing the genre, just like Marvel and superhero films?

• First superhero movies, now it would appear that music biopics are falling for cinemagoer fatigue.
• Talk begins as to what happened that led to the Bruce Springsteen biopic not doing ‘great’ numbers at the box office during opening weekend.
• Benjamin Jackson looks at the last great financial wins for the genre, and explains how ‘biopic formula’ might be to blame for the disinterest in the genre now.

Has the musical biopic now gone the way that superhero movies have done over the last two years?

That’s been the discussion after the weekend, when the long-awaited Bruce Springsteen biopic, Deliver Me From Nowhere, starring Jeremy Allen White opened in fourth position at the US box office with a disappointing $9.1 million domestically and an opening total of $16.1 million worldwide.

Projections for the film were estimated to be a lot higher, with initial forecasts speculating an opening weekend of between $15 to $25 million, which would have been a significant jump from the $11.7 million debut of the Bob Dylan biopic, A Complete Unknown, last year.

But the movie ultimately opened to a flat $9.1 million domestically, missing even the lower end of the final revised range and confirming the worst fears of market fatigue for the genre—a sense of exhaustion cinema-goers have ultimately displayed with the raft of superhero movies that have oversaturated the market.

So has the music biopic started to go the way of the superhero film—and should 2026’s Michael Jackson biopic have anything to worry about if the trend has taken a downturn?

How much has interest in the musical biopic waned over time?

Well, according to data we look at from Box Office Mojo, it appears the interest in the musical biopic has waned dramatically since its commercial peak in the late 2010s, with box office performance figures indicating that the genre is suffering from significant audience fatigue.

While the most successful films mobilised a massive, mainstream audience, recent releases—even those about undisputed cultural icons—have struggled to break through the $10 million opening weekend mark.

The data reveals a critical shift from the late 2010s to the present; the genre proved it could draw massive initial audiences, achieving a $50M+ opening and $200M+ domestic total (Straight Outta Compton, Bohemian Rhapsody). This success was not sustained, though, as the commercial success of Elvis in 2022 ($30.5M opening) was more of an anomaly, driven by director Baz Luhrmann’s distinctive, theatrical style, proving that unique execution, rather than the formula itself, could still break through.

The $9.1 million opening of the Bruce Springsteen biopic in 2025 is the most telling figure; for a living legend, this low debut confirms that the general audience is no longer willing to buy tickets based on name recognition alone. The theatrical model for the mid-budget, formulaic music biopic has largely failed.

The interest has not fully disappeared—as shown by the global success of the less formulaic Bob Marley: One Love ($28.7M opening in 2024)—but the mass-market appetite for the "hits compilation" narrative is demonstrably exhausted.

What is the ‘musical biopic formula’ people talk about?

The term "biopic formula" refers to the highly predictable narrative structure that many modern music films, following the template set by hits like Bohemian Rhapsody and Walk the Line, rigidly adhere to. Critics often refer to these films as ‘Wikipedia Biopics’ because they prioritise hitting every major life event over deep character exploration - some also consider the formula a means of Oscarbaiting during awards season.

This structure typically follows a five-act checklist, which audiences have grown tired of seeing:

• The Humble Beginnings: The star discovers their talent, often struggling against poverty, parental disapproval, or a straight-laced society.
• The Rise to Fame: The pivotal moment where the music is discovered, the band is formed, and the artist achieves sudden, meteoric success (usually capped by a montage of concert footage and hit records).
• The Fall into Excess: Success leads to isolation. The star struggles with substance abuse, excessive partying, the breaking up of the band, or a strained relationship with a spouse or manager. This often involves a scene of "hitting rock bottom."
• The Redemption: The star cleans up, attempts a comeback, or finds a way to reconcile with their family.
• The Triumphant Climax: The film ends with a massive, pitch-perfect recreation of the artist's most famous live performance (e.g., Live Aid), intended to leave the audience feeling uplifted.

The problem, as evidenced by the underperformance of Springsteen (which tried to skip the easy 'hits' formula and focus on a darker, niche era) and Whitney Houston, is that audiences are now rejecting this predictable path. If the film doesn't offer a new perspective, it's seen as a two-hour summary viewers could get for free.

Is this why people no longer interested in musical biopics?

The audience's sudden rejection of music biopics is merely the most visible symptom of a wider malaise affecting the entire biopic genre. The struggles of non-musical films this year suggest that the fatigue is rooted in the quality and purpose of the cinematic biography itself.

The most damning evidence that the wider biopic is overdone comes from the critical, non-musical side of the ledger: despite starring global icon Dwayne Johnson in a dramatic, career-redefining role as MMA fighter Mark Kerr, The Smashing Machine recently opened to a deeply disappointing $5.8 million and has struggled to reach $20 million worldwide against a budget reported to be as high as $70 million.

This proves that big stars and critical acclaim (the film was praised at festivals) cannot guarantee a box office return for a serious, character-driven biography.

The trend is also forcing filmmakers to choose: dilute the story for a big opening (often failing anyway) or bypass the cinema entirely. The highly acclaimed Maestro (Leonard Bernstein), directed by and starring Bradley Cooper, was built for Oscars but immediately defaulted to Netflix for distribution, pulling a top-tier biopic out of the theatrical race entirely.

But both music and non-music biopics suffer from the same creative issues: formula fatigue.

Too many films adhere to the "cradle-to-grave" checklist—humble beginnings, addiction, rehabilitation, and triumphant finale. This leaves the audience feeling they are watching the same movie with different wigs and different songs. To secure rights from estates, biopics often gloss over or entirely sanitise the darkest, most complicated parts of an icon’s life. The result is a glossy, risk-averse, and ultimately unsatisfying film that offers caricature over genuine insight.

Unless Hollywood can break away from the predictable structure and stop treating biopics as easy, factory-line content, the failure of films like Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere and The Smashing Machine will continue to compound, confirming that the genre is facing a full-scale crisis of audience interest.

Are you tired of musical biopics, or are there any that you think should have bucked the financial trend at the box office? Email the writer of this article to let them know if you’re tired or still keen on the humble musical biopic.