Mercury Prize 2025: current favourites ahead of this year's event - and does the Mercury Bump actually exist?

• The Mercury Prize makes its first venture outside of London to crown 2025’s winner next month.
• Early favourites include Sam Fender and Fontaines DC ahead of this year’s celebration in Newcastle.
• But for even those who have been nominated, they will benefit from the annual ‘Mercury Bump’ in terms of sales and streaming.

One of the UK’s most important music prizes will be crowned next month, as this year’s Mercury Prize takes place at the Utilita Arena in Newcastle - the first time the ceremony has been held outside of London.

The event, held on October 16, celebrates artistic achievement by honouring the best album released by a British or Irish artist in the preceding year. The judging process is based solely on the musical quality of the albums, irrespective of their commercial success, sales figures, or genre.

The independent judging panel, made up of musicians, journalists, and other music industry experts, evaluates all submitted albums to create a shortlist of 12 ‘Albums of the Year’ that they believe represent a snapshot of the best in contemporary UK and Irish music. The winner is then chosen from this shortlist on the day of the award ceremony.

The prize has celebrated a wide variety of musical genres and artists since its inception in 1992, showcasing both established stars and emerging talent. The inaugural prize went to Primal Scream for their genre-bending album ‘Screamadelica’, setting a precedent for the award's commitment to artistic innovation.

Over the years, the award has been won by a diverse group of musicians. Dizzee Rascal became the youngest winner in 2003 for his grime masterpiece ‘Boy in da Corner,’ while PJ Harvey holds the distinction of being the only artist to win twice, for ‘Stories from the City, Stories from the Sea’ in 2001 and ‘Let England Shake’ in 2011.

But winning isn’t everything, and in many cases, just being shortlisted for the prize is enough to see the ‘Mercury Bump’ occur.

The what now?

Here’s what that phenomenon entails, alongside who are this year’s favourites to win the prestigious award, and if you can watch all the action or highlights on TV this year.

What is the “Mercury Bump?”

The "Mercury Bump" refers to the significant surge in album sales, streams, and public profile that artists experience after a Mercury Prize nomination or win.

For critically acclaimed but commercially under-the-radar artists, the award can be a game-changer, providing an unparalleled level of exposure and catapulting them into the mainstream.

The effect is evidenced by numerous examples, such as Elbow's ‘The Seldom Seen Kid’ experiencing a 700% sales increase after their 2008 win, or The xx's self-titled debut seeing a 450% boost the day after they took the prize in 2010.

Beyond the winner, even a nomination can have a profound impact, as demonstrated by Glasvegas's self-titled album, which saw an impressive 1,103% sales increase in the fortnight following its nomination in 2008.

While the magnitude of the bump varies—established artists with existing commercial success are less affected—for emerging or niche artists, the Mercury Prize offers a unique and powerful means of visibility.

The resultant ‘bump’ not only leads to a dramatic rise in sales and media attention but often solidifies an artist's place in the music landscape, turning them from a critical favorite into a household name.

Who are the current favourites to win the Mercury Prize?

According to OLBG, Sam Fender’s ‘People Watching’ is the odds on favourite to win this year’s Mercury Prize, with odds currently on 1/1 - giving him a probability factor of 50%. However, ‘Romance’ by Fontaines DC also leads the pack, with odds of 2/1 that they pick up the illustrious prize.

CMAT’s ‘Euro-Country’ is the third favourite according to OLBG, with odds of 3/1, the same that Pulp’s recent album, ‘More,’ has received, with FKA Twigs and Pink Pantheress sharing fifth position with odds of 4/1 each.

Mercury Prize - current betting odds

• Sam Fender - People Watching (1/1)
• Fontaines DC - Romance (2/1)
• CMAT - Euro-Country (3/1)
• Pulp - More (3/1)
• FKA Twigs - Eusexua (4/1)
• PinkPantheress - Fancy That (4/1)

Is the Mercury Prize going to be on TV in 2025?

Though the specifics of the broadcast have yet to be revealed, the BBC will once again be covering all aspects of the prize, with BBC Music, BBC Radio 6 and BBC Television due to provide all the sights and sounds of the ceremony on October 16; more details to be revealed once they are formally announced.