How many points Leeds United need to survive after West Ham. Nottingham Forest & Spurs defeats - according to Opta
A fresh look at the Premier League relegation picture following defeats for Leeds United and all of their rivals over the weekend.
Leeds United ended Premier League matchweek 28 exactly where they started it following defeats for all involved in the relegation battle. The Whites lost 1-0 at home to Manchester City on Saturday evening, with Antoine Semenyo the match-winner on a frustrating night inside Elland Road.
But having seen West Ham United lose 5-2 at Liverpool earlier in the day, pressure was lifted on Leeds to carve out an unlikely result. Then as Daniel Farke and his squad rested up on Sunday, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur also fell to defeats at Brighton and Fulham respectively.
Burnley also lost at home to Brentford on Saturday and while Wolves enjoyed an unlikely win against Aston Villa on Friday, their fate feels very-much sealed. And so for those realistically fighting to survive, it’s as you were.
Rob Edwards’ side are still currently joined by Burnley and West Ham in the bottom three, with the latter occupying 18th place on 25 points. Most importantly, Leeds remain on 31, six points clear of the Hammers with two teams between the pair - Forest on 27 and Spurs on 29.
And following a weekend of defeats all-round, statistical experts Opta updated their Premier League predictions. As has been the case for a couple of weeks now, they predict Leeds to finish the season in 15th, picking up 44 points. Encouragingly, Farke’s side have been given just a 2.05% chance of being relegated.
The Whites and Spurs (5.02%) are seen as outsiders for relegation, with Opta predicting a much closer battle between Nottingham Forest (25%) and West Ham (69.38%). Burnley and Wolves are both virtually guaranteed to drop into the Championship, with a relegation chance of 98.05% and 99.98% respectively.
How many points are needed for Premier League survival?
West Ham seem most likely to finish the season in 18th and according to Opta’s predictions, they will be relegated on 35 points. Should that prediction prove accurate, it makes encouraging reading for Leeds’ survival chances.
Farke’s side are currently on 31 points, meaning they could surpass West Ham’s predicted total of 35 with just five more points over their final 10 games - a superior goal difference means it could even be done with four. Put simply, two wins could end up being enough to remain in the Premier League.
Of course, Leeds will be aiming to have a cushion of at least three points on West Ham before the final weekend in which they head to the London Stadium. And based on the fixtures to come, Farke’s side look well-placed to keep a significant points gap between themselves and 18th.
Leeds United’s run-in compared to rivals
Having come through a tricky run with their six-point gap to West Ham maintained, Leeds can now look ahead to a spell of more favourable fixtures. Of course, no game is easy in the Premier League with even Wolves enjoying a recent uptick in form, but Farke’s side will fancy themselves to take something in each of their final 10 matches.
Leeds United’s run-in
Sunderland (H), Crystal Palace (A), Brentford (H), Man Utd (A), Wolves (H), Bournemouth (A), Burnley (H), Tottenham (A), Brighton (H), West Ham (A) | Average opponent league position: 13
Tottenham’s run-in
Crystal Palace (H), Liverpool (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Sunderland (A), Brighton (H), Wolves (A), Aston Villa (A), Leeds United (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H) | Average opponent league position: 11.2
Nottingham Forest’s run-in
Man City (A), Fulham (H), Tottenham (A), Aston Villa (H), Burnley (H), Sunderland (A), Chelsea (A), Newcastle United (H), Man Utd (A), Bournemouth (H) | Average opponent league position: 9.4
West Ham’s run-in
Fulham (A), Man City (H), Aston Villa (A), Wolves (H), Crystal Palace (A), Everton (H), Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle United (A), Leeds United (H) | Average opponent league position: 9.3
Burnley’s run-in
Everton (A), Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A), Brighton (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Man City (H), Leeds United (A), Aston Villa (H), Arsenal (A), Wolves (H) | Average opponent league position: 9.7
Wolves’ run-in
Liverpool (H), Brentford (A), West Ham (A), Leeds United (A), Tottenham (H), Sunderland (H), Brighton (A), Fulham (H), Burnley (A) | Average opponent league position: 11.2